Bitcoin has surged 12% since the onset of the Iran conflict, prompting analysts to reevaluate the cryptocurrency as a neutral settlement layer rather than just a speculative asset.

Key Points

• Bitcoin gained 12% since February 28, while the S&P 500 fell 1% and gold dropped 10%.
• Iran plans to collect a $1-per-barrel toll in bitcoin for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan suggests investors are now valuing bitcoin as both a store of value and a potential global currency.
• The shift follows historical precedents like the 2022 removal of Russia from the SWIFT financial network.
• Skeptics argue that Iran’s adoption is driven by sanctions pressure rather than the maturity of bitcoin’s payment infrastructure.

Why it Matters

This shift suggests that markets are beginning to view bitcoin as an apolitical alternative to traditional, state-controlled financial rails during geopolitical instability. If this trend continues, it could significantly expand bitcoin's total addressable market beyond its current role as a digital store of value.