A new study from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and the Forecasting Research Institute reveals that experts are increasingly concerned about AI-driven labor market disruption by 2030.

Key Points

• Researchers surveyed 159 experts, including economists, AI specialists, and superforecasters, regarding the future impact of artificial intelligence on employment.
• Experts assigned a 14 percent probability to a "rapid progress" scenario where AI systems achieve CEO-level agency and complete complex research tasks.
• Under a rapid progress model, the U.S. labor force participation rate could drop to 59.3 percent by 2030, falling below 60 percent for the first time in five decades.
• The study suggests that rapid AI adoption could lead to significantly higher wealth inequality, mirroring economic conditions seen in the era preceding World War II.

Why it Matters

• These findings indicate a notable shift in expert consensus, moving from skepticism toward a serious acknowledgment of potential large-scale workforce displacement. This research highlights an urgent need for policymakers to develop strategies that address potential shifts in employment structures and rising economic inequality over the next decade.